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Book Review
-- "The Coming Conflict With China" April 1997 "The
coming conflict with China" In March
1997, an excellent new book was published on U.S.-China relations. It is titled
"The coming conflict with China" and written by Richard Bernstein and
Ross H. Munro, two former correspondents who served as bureau chiefs in Beijing
and Asia for Time Magazine, the New York Times, and the Toronto Globe and Mail. "America
is the enemy" The writers
examines how, in spite of U.S. and West European attempts to open an
"engagement policy" with China, during the past years China has
increasingly portrayed the West, and particularly the United States, as
"the enemy." The book
documents what the writers see as a fundamental change in attitude by Chinese
leaders towards the United States during the past couple of years. They show
that China has determined that the United States "...in spite of the
diplomatic contacts, trade, technology transfers, and the numerous McDonald's
and Kentucky Fried Chickens open in the PRC..." is its chief global rival. The new
China lobby The book
also describes in detail how a "New China Lobby" has evolved in
Washington, powered by former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and Alexander
Haig, and funded by major business interests such as Boeing, Motorola, Allied
Signal, Caterpillar, GM and Ford. The book even gives dollar amounts of what
Messrs. Eagleburger and Scowcroft receive from Kissinger Associates for their
work. The lobby
includes Kissinger Associates, the US-China Business Council, the Emergency
Committee for American Trade, the US Chamber of Commerce, the National
Association of Retailers, and the National Association of Manufacturers. One example
of how the lobby works: when U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher went to
Beijing in 1994 to urge the Communist authorities to improve China's human
rights record, he was rebuffed. According to Senator Ernest Hollings, this was
because "Before you (Christopher) even landed in Beijing, the K-Street
crowd of lawyers, consultants and special reps told the Chinese"
"Don't worry about him." Another
example: just before the annual MFN vote in the Spring of 1996, Alexander Haig
called California Congressman Christopher Cox and berated him, accusing him of
"trying to destroy U.S.-China relations." What had Cox done ? In March
1996, during the Chinese missile crisis, when China was threatening Taiwan, he
had introduced a resolution in Congress, which was instrumental in the
US-decision to send two aircraft carrier task forces to the Taiwan Straits to
prevent an attack on Taiwan. "Flashpoint
Taiwan" A major part
of the book is the discussion of the problems in the Taiwan - China
relationship. The authors argue for stronger US support for Taiwan, and state
that an American commitment for the defense of the island is necessary for the
balance of power and peace and stability in East Asia: "..without American
commitment to intervene in a Taiwan-China conflict, there would be very little
standing in the way of Chinese domination of all of East Asia, and this fact is
well understood from Australia to Tokyo." In
an interesting hypothetical chapter, the authors describe how a conflict could
evolve in which in 2004, China is itself in some domestic turmoil. It has
secretly developed three times as many submarines, landing craft, and warships
as the world believes, giving it the arsenal necessary for an operation taking
Taiwan in three days. A provoked incident in Taipei is taken as an excuse by the
Chinese authorities to launch a blockade and later the attack itself. The book
then describes the hypothetical discussions in the White House about the
American options, which by that time are rather limited. The main point of the
authors is that at present the United States government continues to be naïve
about China's long-range interests and goals. The book concludes with a chapter
"Coping with China" in which the authors give suggestions for a
clearer, more forthright US policy towards China. Highly recommended reading.
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